Questão Comentada · 36
1º Semestre · B3GE™
TEXTO DE APOIO (clique para abrir / fechar)
A FRAGILE REFORM
1. For the past couple of years much of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, was reduced to rubble [escombros] by demolitions. Now luxury apartments, parks, and cycle lanes are rising from the ruins. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, believes the old city must make way for a cleaner, shinier one.
2. Mr Abiy is transforming not just Addis, but Ethiopia. Long [por muito tempo] one of Africa’s state-controlled economies, the east African country of 135 million people has recently begun to liberalize. A year ago, not only did it allow the value of its currency, the birr, to be determined primarily by market forces of supply and demand, but it also entered an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program worth US$3.4 billion (3% of GDP). A number of reforms, if successful, will radically alter its economic system. “What they are trying to do is comparable to the transition economies after the fall of the Soviet Union,” says Steven Dercon of Oxford University, who has advised several Ethiopian governments on economic policy. Ethiopia hopes to follow the path of countries such as Poland and become an economic power. Yet it may end up looking more like Russia, its transition derailed by corruption, conflict, and chaos.
3. Following decades of Communist dictatorship, the government began to allow some space for free markets in the 1990s. But it retained tight restrictions on private enterprise, growing through debt-fuelled state investment in infrastructure. Yet since a sovereign default [não pagamento da dívida interna ou externa] in 2023, following a devastating civil war, forced Ethiopia to ask the IMF for a bailout [socorro financeiro], it has opened up banking, retail, and other sectors to foreign competition, and relaxed restrictions on repatriating profits. On July 1st parliament approved a law allowing foreigners to own property. The country plans to privatize some state-owned firms. In January it opened a stock exchange.
4. Economic performance has been encouraging, according to official data. The IMF estimates that the economy grew by 7.2% in the year to July 2025. But this rosy picture may not be the whole story. The IMF relies on government data for its estimates, but has repeatedly complained about “the quality and availability of economic statistics” in Ethiopia. Less formal measures such as electricity demand indicate the economy is growing – but probably not as fast as official figures suggest.
5. Investors say that reforms have so far been superficial. A former executive at a multinational company says state-owned firms still enjoy unfair advantages. Others lament that Ethiopia’s economic system is still characterized by complex regulations, a bewildering bureaucracy, limited competition, and restricted imports. A good rule of thumb [regra informal mas prática], says one investor, is that anything not explicitly permitted is forbidden.
6. Moreover, corruption, which used to be relatively rare, seems to be increasing. In 2023 almost two-thirds of Ethiopians felt it had increased in the past year, according to Afrobarometer, a public opinion research organization. Procedures such as applying for a passport have become impossible to complete without paying a bribe [suborno]. Some complain of having to grease official palms [subornar agentes do governo] just to pay tax.
7. Yet the most important barrier to investment in Ethiopia remains conflict: besides the insurgencies raging in the country’s two most populous regions, Oromia and Amhara, tensions with neighboring Eritrea continue to rise, in large part because Mr. Abiy has made no secret of his desire to grab that country’s Red Sea ports. Nothing deters investment like an imminent war.
QUESTÃO
The information in the article most likely supports which of the following statements?
In Ethiopia, the act of bribery exists in a gray area, in which it is neither explicitly permitted nor explicitly forbidden.
Clandestine forces in Eritrea have been playing with fire by financing the armed insurgencies in the Ethiopian regions of Oromia and Amhara.
Fearing economic chaos and war, so many Ethiopians are trying to leave the country that passports can only be acquired through bribery.
If Abiy Ahmed tries to take possession of Eritrea’s Red Sea ports, he will put his economic reform plans at risk.
Eritrea has made it clear that it will go to war to protect its Red Sea ports.
🔐 Gabarito (clique para revelar)
🧭 Leitura orientada
A questão pede a alternativa sustentada pelo texto, isto é, a afirmação que pode ser legitimamente inferida a partir das informações apresentadas, sem extrapolações ou suposições externas.
🔍 Identificação das informações-chave
O artigo afirma que, apesar de alguns avanços econômicos, a Etiópia enfrenta dois grandes entraves ao investimento: corrupção crescente e, sobretudo, conflitos armados internos e tensões externas. O texto destaca que as tensões com a Eritreia aumentaram porque Abiy Ahmed manifesta o desejo de controlar os portos eritreus no Mar Vermelho, concluindo que “Nothing deters investment like an imminent war”.
🧠 Núcleo de sentido
Ao relacionar diretamente o risco de guerra com a retração de investimentos, o texto sugere que uma tentativa de tomar os portos eritreus colocaria em risco o processo de reforma econômica conduzido por Abiy Ahmed, pois intensificaria a instabilidade política e militar.
🔍 Análise alternativa por alternativa (com pegadinhas)
(A) ❌ Errada
Pegadinha: o texto afirma que a corrupção é ilegal
e crescente, não que exista em uma “zona cinzenta” normativa.
(B) ❌ Errada
Pegadinha: não há menção a forças clandestinas
da Eritreia financiando insurgências internas na Etiópia.
(C) ❌ Errada
Pegadinha: embora haja corrupção em serviços públicos,
o texto não associa diretamente a obtenção de passaportes
ao medo generalizado de fuga em massa do país.
(D) ✅ Correta — GABARITO
A alternativa reflete exatamente o argumento do texto:
uma escalada militar com a Eritreia,
motivada pela tentativa de controle dos portos do Mar Vermelho,
afugentaria investidores
e colocaria em risco as
reformas econômicas em curso.
(E) ❌ Errada
Pegadinha: o texto não afirma
que a Eritreia declarou explicitamente
que irá à guerra para defender seus portos.
🧠 Resumo B3GE™ Master
✔ Conflitos são o maior entrave ao investimento.
✔ Tensões com a Eritreia aumentam risco de guerra.
✔ Guerra iminente ameaça reformas econômicas.
🔎 Gabarito confirmado: (D)